Premium
The potential effects of repeated outbreaks of phocine distemper among harbour seals: a response to Harding et al. (2002)
Author(s) -
Lonergan Mike,
Harwood John
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
ecology letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.852
H-Index - 265
eISSN - 1461-0248
pISSN - 1461-023X
DOI - 10.1046/j.1461-0248.2003.00510.x
Subject(s) - phoca , outbreak , morbillivirus , population , harbour , harbor seal , biology , zoology , ecology , geography , paramyxoviridae , virology , virus , viral disease , environmental health , medicine , computer science , programming language
In 2002 phocine distemper virus (PDV) reappeared in the European harbour seal ( Phoca vitulina ) population. This outbreak seems to have followed a similar pattern to the 1988 one which killed almost 60% of individuals in most localities. Harding et al. (2002) suggested that there is a relatively high (18%) risk that recurrent outbreaks of PDV could reduce the European harbour seal population by 90%. We show that incorporating the effects of observation error during population surveys and of the long‐term immunity of survivors of morbillivirus outbreaks indicate a much lower level of risk (<1%). This suggests that, while the immediate effects of the disease are dramatic, it is unlikely that recurrent epidemics will pose serious conservation problems for this species under current conditions.