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Probabilities of occurrence and detection of damage in airframe materials
Author(s) -
Harlow D. G.,
Wei R. P.
Publication year - 1999
Publication title -
fatigue and fracture of engineering materials and structures
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.887
H-Index - 84
eISSN - 1460-2695
pISSN - 8756-758X
DOI - 10.1046/j.1460-2695.1999.00168.x
Subject(s) - airworthiness , airframe , reliability (semiconductor) , reliability engineering , probabilistic logic , sizing , statistical power , quality assurance , structural engineering , computer science , statistics , forensic engineering , engineering , materials science , certification , artificial intelligence , mathematics , composite material , art , power (physics) , physics , external quality assessment , operations management , quantum mechanics , visual arts , political science , law
The reliability of airworthiness assessment and the effective management of ageing fleets of aircraft depend critically on the quality of tools for predicting damage nucleation and accumulation and its detection, i.e. on the interrelationship between the probabilities of occurrence and detection. To illustrate these interrelationships, a mechanistically based probability approach involving localized pitting corrosion and subsequent fatigue cracking is presented. A probability of detection based on a typical state‐of‐the‐art technique for non‐destructive evaluation is used for comparison and probabilistic assessment. The results suggest that the probability of detection is inadequate, and information on damage size should be included as part of an effective airworthiness assurance methodology. An appropriate target for detecting and sizing damage of ≈ 0.10 mm with a probability of detection and a confidence level of at least 90% is suggested, versus the current capability of 1.27 mm at only 50%