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Bayesian Inference Strategien zur Schätzung des genetischen Fortschrittes mittels Threshold Modellen mit der Anwendung auf Kalbeschwierigkeiten beim Italienischen Piemonteser Rind
Author(s) -
Kizilkaya K.,
Banks B. D.,
Carnier P.,
Albera A.,
Bittante G.,
Tempelman R. J.
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
journal of animal breeding and genetics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.689
H-Index - 51
eISSN - 1439-0388
pISSN - 0931-2668
DOI - 10.1046/j.1439-0388.2002.00348.x
Subject(s) - statistics , markov chain monte carlo , mathematics , sire , restricted maximum likelihood , random effects model , heritability , covariance , bayesian probability , gibbs sampling , estimation theory , biology , medicine , zoology , meta analysis , genetics
Summary First parity calving difficulty scores from Italian Piemontese cattle were analysed using a threshold mixed effects model. The model included the fixed effects of age of dam and sex of calf and their interaction and the random effects of sire, maternal grandsire, and herd‐year‐season. Covariances between sire and maternal grandsire effects were modelled using a numerator relationship matrix based on male ancestors. Field data consisted of 23 953 records collected between 1989 and 1998 from 4741 herd‐year‐seasons. Variance and covariance components were estimated using two alternative approximate marginal maximum likelihood (MML) methods, one based on expectation‐maximization (EM) and the other based on Laplacian integration. Inferences were compared to those based on three separate runs or sequences of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling in order to assess the validity of approximate MML estimates derived from data with similar size and design structure. Point estimates of direct heritability were 0.24, 0.25 and 0.26 for EM, Laplacian and MCMC (posterior mean), respectively, whereas corresponding maternal heritability estimates were 0.10, 0.11 and 0.12, respectively. The covariance between additive direct and maternal effects was found to be not different from zero based on MCMC‐derived confidence sets. The conventional joint modal estimates of sire effects and associated standard errors based on MML estimates of variance and covariance components differed little from the respective posterior means and standard deviations derived from MCMC. Therefore, there may be little need to pursue computation‐intensive MCMC methods for inference on genetic parameters and genetic merits using conventional threshold sire and maternal grandsire models for large datasets on calving ease.