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Morbidity and mortality due to ascariasis: re‐estimation and sensitivity analysis of global numbers at risk
Author(s) -
de Silva N. R.,
Chan M. S.,
Bundy D. A. P.
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
tropical medicine and international health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.056
H-Index - 114
eISSN - 1365-3156
pISSN - 1360-2276
DOI - 10.1046/j.1365-3156.1997.d01-320.x
Subject(s) - ascariasis , estimation , medicine , sensitivity (control systems) , environmental health , economics , immunology , helminths , management , electronic engineering , engineering
This paper presents estimates of the global numbers of people at risk from morbidity related to infection with Ascaris lumbricoides and the numbers of deaths from this infection. Morbidity is classified into 4 types: deficits in growth and fitness which are contemporaneous with infection, or permanent, overt acute illness of mild to moderate severity, and complications involving hospitalization. The estimation of morbidity is based on theoretical models of parasite distributions developed in previous papers. A sensitivity analysis is carried out in which parameters of the model are varied using a Latin hypercube sampling technique. The results estimate ≈1300 million infections globally with 59 million at risk of some morbidity. The estimate for acute illness is 12 million cases per year with ≈10 000 deaths. Most morbidity is in children. Sensitivity analysis suggests that infection estimates will not vary greatly with changes in parameter values but that morbidity estimates may be highly variable.