A hydrothermal time model explains the cardinal temperatures for seed germination

Temperature ( T ) and water potential ( y ) are two primary environmental regulators of seed germination. Seeds exhibit a base or minimum T for germination ( T b ), an optimum T at which germination is most rapid ( T o ), and a maximum or ceiling T at which germination is prevented ( T c ). Germination at suboptimal T can be characterized on the basis of thermal time, or the T in excess of T b multiplied by the time to a given germination percentage ( t g ). Similarly, germination at reduced y can be characterized on a hydrotime basis, or t g multiplied by the y in excess of a base or threshold y that just prevents germination ( y b ). Within a seed population, the variation in thermal times to germination among different seed fractions ( g ) is based on a normal distribution of y b values among seeds ( y b ( g )). Germination responses across a range of suboptimal T and y can be described by a general hydrothermal time model that combines the T and y components, but this model does not account for the decrease in germination rates and percentages when T exceeds T o . We report here that supra‐optimal temperatures shift the ψ b ( g ) distribution of a potato ( Solanum tuberosum L.) seed population to more positive values, explaining why both germination rates and percentages are reduced as T increases above T o . A modified hydrothermal time model incorporating changes in ψ b ( g ) at T  >  T o describes germination timing and percentage across all T and ψ at which germination can occur and provides physiologically relevant indices of seed behaviour.