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Forecasting plant migration rates: managing uncertainty for risk assessment
Author(s) -
Higgins S. I.,
Clark J. S.,
Nathan R.,
Hovestadt T.,
Schurr F.,
Fragoso J. M. V.,
Aguiar M. R.,
Ribbens E.,
Lavorel S.
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
journal of ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.452
H-Index - 181
eISSN - 1365-2745
pISSN - 0022-0477
DOI - 10.1046/j.1365-2745.2003.00781.x
Subject(s) - range (aeronautics) , climate change , context (archaeology) , environmental resource management , ecology , environmental science , geography , biology , engineering , archaeology , aerospace engineering
Summary1 Anthropogenic changes in the global climate are shifting the potential ranges of many plant species. 2 Changing climates will allow some species the opportunity to expand their range, others may experience a contraction in their potential range, while the current and future ranges of some species may not overlap. Our capacity to generalize about the threat these range shifts pose to plant diversity is limited by many sources of uncertainty. 3 In this paper we summarize sources of uncertainty for migration forecasts and suggest a research protocol for making forecasts in the context of uncertainty.