Open AccessA novel approach to estimate the eruptive potential and probability in open conduit volcanoes
Author(s) -
Sofia De Gregorio,
Marco Camarda
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
scientific reports
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.24
H-Index - 213
ISSN - 2045-2322
DOI - 10.1038/srep30471
Subject(s) - magma , volcano , electrical conduit , geology , magma chamber , flux (metallurgy) , petrology , geochemistry , computer science , chemistry , telecommunications , organic chemistry
In open conduit volcanoes, volatile-rich magma continuously enters into the feeding system nevertheless the eruptive activity occurs intermittently. From a practical perspective, the continuous steady input of magma in the feeding system is not able to produce eruptive events alone, but rather surplus of magma inputs are required to trigger the eruptive activity. The greater the amount of surplus of magma within the feeding system, the higher is the eruptive probability.Despite this observation, eruptive potential evaluations are commonly based on the regular magma supply, and in eruptive probability evaluations, generally any magma input has the same weight. Conversely, herein we present a novel approach based on the quantification of surplus of magma progressively intruded in the feeding system. To quantify the surplus of magma, we suggest to process temporal series of measurable parameters linked to the magma supply. We successfully performed a practical application on Mt Etna using the soil CO 2 flux recorded over ten years.