Open AccessMonitoring Pertussis Infections Using Internet Search Queries
Author(s) -
Yuzhou Zhang,
Gabriel Milinovich,
Zhiwei Xu,
Hilary Bambrick,
Kerrie Mengersen,
Shilu Tong,
Wenbiao Hu
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
scientific reports
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.24
H-Index - 213
ISSN - 2045-2322
DOI - 10.1038/s41598-017-11195-z
Subject(s) - the internet , computer science , incidence (geometry) , statistics , data mining , mathematics , world wide web , geometry
This study aims to assess the utility of internet search query analysis in pertussis surveillance. This study uses an empirical time series model based on internet search metrics to detect the pertussis incidence in Australia. Our research demonstrates a clear seasonal pattern of both pertussis infections and Google Trends (GT) with specific search terms in time series seasonal decomposition analysis. The cross-correlation function showed significant correlations between GT and pertussis incidences in Australia and each state at the lag of 0 and 1 months, with the variation of correlations between 0.17 and 0.76 (p < 0.05). A multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed to track pertussis epidemics pattern using GT data. Reflected values for this model were generally consistent with the observed values. The inclusion of GT metrics improved detective performance of the model (β = 0.058, p < 0.001). The validation analysis indicated that the overall agreement was 81% (sensitivity: 77% and specificity: 83%). This study demonstrates the feasibility of using internet search metrics for the detection of pertussis epidemics in real-time, which can be considered as a pre-requisite for constructing early warning systems for pertussis surveillance using internet search metrics.