Species–area relationships of butterflies in Europe and species richness forecasting

Species–area relationships (SARs) of European butterfly species (Rhopalocera) appear to follow power functions with Mediterranean butterflies having a much higher slope value (z=0.49) compared to the slope for the northern and eastern European countries (z=0.10). A simulated process of species extinction by a stepwise density dependent random elimination of species affected species–area patterns differently. For Mediterranean countries SAR slopes decreased, for other European countries slopes increased during the extinction process. Comparisons of species numbers before and after extinction with those predicted by a classical SAR approach differed widely and revealed that SARs are not able to predict future species numbers at local scales. For Mediterranean countries the classical SAR approach underestimated the number of species remaining after simulated extinction, for all other European countries SARs highly overestimated species numbers. These contrasting patterns indicate that changes in SAR patterns do not unequivocally point to changes in species diversity or community structure as assumed by current theory. On the other hand, the results strongly indicate that simplified applications of SARs for forecasting might give misimpressions about species loss and future biodiversity if the initial community structure, especially relative densities and numbers of species with restricted range size, are not taken into account.