Premium
Effects of parameter uncertainty on long‐term simulations of lake alkalinity
Author(s) -
Lee Sijin,
Georgakakos Konstantine P.,
Schnoor Jerald L.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr026i003p00459
Subject(s) - alkalinity , environmental science , acid deposition , hydrology (agriculture) , term (time) , range (aeronautics) , deposition (geology) , soil science , geology , chemistry , geomorphology , geotechnical engineering , physics , materials science , organic chemistry , quantum mechanics , sediment , composite material , soil water
A first‐order second‐moment uncertainty analysis has been applied to two lakes in the Adirondack Park, New York, to assess the long‐term response of lakes to acid deposition. Uncertainty due to parameter error and initial condition error was considered. Because the enhanced trickle‐down (ETD) model is calibrated with only 3 years of field data and is used to simulate a 50‐year period, the uncertainty in the lake alkalinity prediction is relatively large. When a best estimate of parameter uncertainty is used, the annual average alkalinity is predicted to be −11 ±28 μeq/L for Lake Woods and 142 ± 139 μeq/L for Lake Panther after 50 years. Hydrologic parameters and chemical weathering rate constants contributed most to the uncertainty of the simulations. Results indicate that the uncertainty in long‐range predictions of lake alkalinity increased significantly over a 5‐ to 10‐year period and then reached a steady state.