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Historical reconstructions and future forecasts of regional surface water acidification in southernmost Norway
Author(s) -
Hornberger George M.,
Cosby B. J.,
Wright Richard F.
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr025i009p02009
Subject(s) - water quality , deposition (geology) , environmental science , acid deposition , monte carlo method , hydrology (agriculture) , surface water , atmospheric sciences , environmental engineering , soil science , geology , ecology , geomorphology , statistics , soil water , mathematics , geotechnical engineering , sediment , biology
A “regionalization” methodology is presented that uses a conceptual model of long‐term water quality responses to acidic deposition (MAGIC) in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to reproduce observed distributions of water quality variables derived from regional surveys. The methodology is applied to data from a 1974 survey of 700 lakes in southernmost Norway to produce a calibrated model for the region. Predicted water quality in 1986 agrees well with results from a resurvey of 300 lakes. The model indicates that significant acidification occurred in the decades preceding the survey. The simulated effects of the 5% deposition decrease over the period 1974–1986 are very small but the effects of a 30% decrease in 26 years are readily apparent. Simulations for a 30% reduction indicate little improvement in water quality in the future. Simulations for a 50% reduction and for a 70% reduction in deposition indicate substantial and continuing improvement in water quality. The regionalization approach is a new and potentially useful method for modeling impacts of atmospheric acidic deposition.