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Chaos in rainfall
Author(s) -
RodriguezIturbe Ignacio,
Febres De Power Beatriz,
Sharifi Mohammad B.,
Georgakakos Konstantine P.
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr025i007p01667
Subject(s) - attractor , lyapunov exponent , predictability , chaotic , statistical physics , phase space , correlation dimension , storm , fractal dimension , series (stratigraphy) , nonlinear system , fractal , mathematics , stochastic process , meteorology , computer science , physics , mathematical analysis , statistics , geology , paleontology , quantum mechanics , artificial intelligence , thermodynamics
The question is posed regarding possible chaotic dynamics in the temporal rainfall of storm events. Chaotic dynamics implies a nonlinear deterministic system very sensitive to initial conditions which yields outputs indistinguishable from a stochastic process by standard techniques. The trajectories of these systems in the phase space are characterized by being contained in a strange attractor of fractal dimension. A time series of 1990 points of 15‐s rainfall for the storm of October 25, 1980, in Boston is analyzed in detail toward this objective. It is found that both the characteristics of the correlation integral and the Lyapunov exponents of the historical data give preliminary support to the presence of chaotic dynamics with a strange attractor. The implications of these findings for the modeling of storm rainfall and for the limits of predictability of the process are discussed jointly with the research challenges lying ahead in this field.