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A generalized stochastic hydrometeorological model for flood and flash‐flood forecasting: 1. Formulation
Author(s) -
Georgakakos Konstantine P.
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr022i013p02083
Subject(s) - hydrometeorology , flash flood , flood forecasting , flood myth , meteorology , interpolation (computer graphics) , kalman filter , multivariate interpolation , probabilistic logic , hydrological modelling , environmental science , computer science , hydrograph , hydrology (agriculture) , precipitation , geology , climatology , geography , bilinear interpolation , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , artificial intelligence , computer vision , animation , computer graphics (images)
An attempt to couple meteorological and hydrological models and procedures within the real‐time flood forecasting framework is made. A local quantitative precipitation model is coupled to a soil model and a channel routing model through mass conservation differential equations and an automatic updating procedure. Automatic updating is performed through the use of the Extended Kalman Filter that provides the capability for real‐time probabilistic forecasts of flood occurrence and flood magnitude. To complement the coupled system, a methodology was developed for consistent spatial interpolation of sparse observations of the pertinent meteorological input variables. The interpolation methodology takes into account topographic relief and atmospheric lapse rates. The result of the modeling effort is a stochastic‐dynamic hydrometeorological system suitable for use in real‐time flood and flash‐flood forecasting.