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The Effect of Serial Correlation on Reservoir Size
Author(s) -
Phatarfod R. M.
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr022i006p00927
Subject(s) - inflow , autocorrelation , correlation coefficient , flow (mathematics) , limiting , environmental science , statistics , soil science , mathematics , geology , engineering , oceanography , geometry , mechanical engineering
This paper investigates the effect of the serial correlation coefficient of the inflows on the reservoir size, when large reservoirs are involved. Specifically, it works out reservoir size ratios, i.e., the ratio of the reservoir size when the serial correlations are present to the size when they are neglected, assuming reliability and draft to be the same. When the reservoir is operated on an annual basis, it is shown that for low drafts the ratio is dependent on the inflow model, whereas for the limiting case when the draft ratio approaches the value 1, the ratio is approximately (1 + ρ)/(l − ρ) irrespective of the inflow model, where ρ is the annual serial coefficient. For the case when the reservoir is operated on a seasonal basis, the ratio considered is that of the reservoir size when all the serial correlations are present to the size when the year‐end seasonal correlation is neglected. It is shown that for large reservoirs this ratio is mainly dependent on the annual flow parameters irrespective of the within‐year pattern of inflows.