Premium
An Ice Jam Prediction Model as a Tool in Floodplain Management
Author(s) -
BarnesSvarney Patricia L.,
Montz Burrell E.
Publication year - 1985
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr021i002p00256
Subject(s) - snow , flood myth , floodplain , environmental science , climatology , flooding (psychology) , hazard , precipitation , meteorology , hydrology (agriculture) , geology , geography , geotechnical engineering , cartography , archaeology , psychology , chemistry , organic chemistry , psychotherapist
Currently, ice jam flooding does not enter into consideration of floodplain designation or flood hazard management in areas experiencing irregular occurrences of ice jams, except as a reaction to past events. Therefore it is important to test prediction techniques for their application to this problem. One such model is the Wiener Filtering technique which is used to correlate the occurrence of ice jams with climatological data for Conklin, New York. It is postulated that ice jam events are directly related to seasonal precipitation, snowfall, temperature, and temperature fluctuations. Monthly and 15‐day averages of these variables are correlated using the Wiener Filtering model. The results of these preliminary analyses show that in Conklin, New York, different combinations of climatological data with past ice jam occurrence appear to show promise in predicting ice jam events. Further study is needed to test the significance and reliability of this prediction model.