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Forecasting Relative Price Movements for Project Evaluation
Author(s) -
Fortin Michael,
McBean Edward
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr020i010p01327
Subject(s) - relative price , econometrics , inflation (cosmology) , economics , differential (mechanical device) , macroeconomics , engineering , physics , theoretical physics , aerospace engineering
Inflationary impacts have differentially influenced the prices of various components of water resources projects. Therefore forecasts based on statistical analyses of historical price trends are examined to determine whether the differential inflationary impacts in the future may be predicted. Simple statistical estimates of anticipated rates of change in relative prices are shown not to be reliable predictors of future price movements. Relative price movements may therefore only be forecast on the basis of fairly substantial analyses of market forces.