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A model of human response to flood warnings for system evaluation
Author(s) -
Ferrell William R.,
Krzysztofowicz Roman
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr019i006p01467
Subject(s) - flood myth , floodplain , flooding (psychology) , flood forecasting , component (thermodynamics) , flood stage , computer science , environmental science , 100 year flood , geography , cartography , psychology , archaeology , physics , psychotherapist , thermodynamics
A behavioral model of human response to flood warnings is developed as a component of a methodology for evaluation of the performance of flood forecast‐response systems. A floodplain dweller responds to a sequence of flood warnings by taking protective action (such as evacuation, flood proofing, shutdown of a facility) in order to reduce his loss. The model is meant to mimic the actual response behavior of the floodplain dweller or to predict such behavior under future system conditions. It is built of mathematical representations of four interconnected cognitive elements of response: (1) uncertainty about flooding and loss prior to a flood, (2) sequential inference based on warnings during a flood, (3) response strategy, and (4) learning after a flood. Results of an application and qualitative verification of the model are discussed.