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Seasonal patterns in extreme 1‐hour rainfalls
Author(s) -
Revfeim K. J. A.
Publication year - 1982
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr018i006p01741
Subject(s) - intensity (physics) , poisson distribution , exponential distribution , extreme value theory , climatology , environmental science , series (stratigraphy) , exponential function , amplitude , mathematics , atmospheric sciences , statistics , geology , physics , paleontology , mathematical analysis , quantum mechanics
The information content of monthly rainfall extremes is used to estimate simple harmonic coefficients of a rainfall model. Extreme rainfalls are assumed to occur as a periodic Poisson process, with time‐varying rate, and independent exponentially distributed amounts where the mean of the exponential distribution also varies with a period of 1 year. Amplitudes of both recurrence and intensity were found to be significantly different from zero for a 31‐year by 12‐month record of 1‐hour rainfall extremes. The phases of recurrence and intensity differ by approximately 6 months so that the lowest recurrence rate is associated with the highest rainfall intensity. More precise predictors of extreme events within a given time period are obtained using the monthly data base rather than the series of annual extremes.