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Synthetic streamflow generation: 2. Effect of parameter uncertainty
Author(s) -
Stedinger Jery R.,
Taylor Marshall R.
Publication year - 1982
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr018i004p00919
Subject(s) - streamflow , reliability (semiconductor) , environmental science , climatology , drainage basin , flow (mathematics) , hydrology (agriculture) , mathematics , geology , geography , power (physics) , physics , geometry , cartography , geotechnical engineering , quantum mechanics
The parameters of stochastic models of monthly streamflows can be estimated with only limited precision given the finite and often short streamflow records available for planning. This paper illustrates the impact of the uncertainty in the parameters of the distribution of annual flows on estimates of monthly reservoir system reliability. Even with the 50‐year flow record available for the upper Delaware River basin, the impact of the uncertainty in parameters describing the distribution of annual flows on estimated capacity‐reliability relationships is shown to be rather large and as important as the choice between a relatively simple Thomas‐Fiering monthly streamflow model and a Markov model of annual flows coupled with disaggregation to obtain monthly values.