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A screening model to quantify resilience
Author(s) -
Fiering Myron B.
Publication year - 1982
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr018i001p00027
Subject(s) - computer science , surprise , identification (biology) , resilience (materials science) , management science , risk analysis (engineering) , operations research , environmental resource management , environmental science , mathematics , ecology , engineering , business , biology , sociology , physics , communication , thermodynamics
Concurrent advances in statistics and biology have introduced similar concepts to these disciplines: the use of robust estimators and the investigation of resilient ecosystems, respectively. This paper and those following in this series explore the application of these concepts of water resource systems. The emphasis here is on the concept of a resilient water resource system, or one which does not respond precipitously to a major ‘surprise’ during the course of its economic life. The general flatness of the response surface in the vicinity of the global optimum is explored, leading to suggestions for selection of small‐, intermediate‐, and large‐scale system design. The conclusions indicate that systems characterized by a small number of design options are somewhat more brittle and are more sensitive to optimization procedures, while systems which contain significant redundancies are relatively insensitive to the identification of global optima and lend themselves more readily to negotiations in the institutional and political spheres.