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Risk models for flood levee design
Author(s) -
Tung YeouKoung,
Mays Larry W.
Publication year - 1981
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr017i004p00833
Subject(s) - levee , flood myth , return period , reliability (semiconductor) , risk analysis (engineering) , environmental science , geotechnical engineering , civil engineering , hydrology (agriculture) , computer science , reliability engineering , engineering , geography , medicine , power (physics) , physics , archaeology , quantum mechanics
In the design of flood levee systems there are many parameters and variables with associated uncertainties. This paper presents models which systematically analyze the various types of uncertainties in the hydrologic aspect as well as hydraulic aspect of design and analysis to define the risk and reliability of overtopping. Both static and time dependent risk models are developed. Results show that risk evaluated by the simple return period method can be underestimated by 10% to 50%, depending on the loading distribution model used. The risk‐safety factor relationships are shown to be very sensitive to the hydrologic loading probability model adopted, so that composite models are suggested for risk analysis.