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Distribution‐free methods for estimating flood and streamflow exceedance probabilities by correlation
Author(s) -
Cooper David M.,
Clarke Robin T.
Publication year - 1980
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr016i006p01121
Subject(s) - streamflow , joint probability distribution , interval (graph theory) , statistics , flood myth , probabilistic logic , mathematics , probability distribution , distribution (mathematics) , random variable , environmental science , bayesian probability , hydrology (agriculture) , geology , geography , combinatorics , cartography , drainage basin , geotechnical engineering , mathematical analysis , archaeology
This paper deals with the problem in which it is necessary to infer the probabilistic characteristics of a streamflow variable y t (e.g., annual peak discharge, or accumulated streamflow during some time interval) given a correlated longer record x t (e.g., annual peak discharge at a gaging site with longer record; rainfall during the same time interval). In particular, it is necessary to estimate probabilities of the form P ( y ≥ y 0 ) for given Y 0 . Conventional methods make assumptions about the joint probability distribution of x t and y t ; the methods developed in this paper require no such assumption, being distribution free. Estimates of P ( y ≥ Y 0 ) are also obtained by Bayesian methods.