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Screening objectives and uncertainties in water resources planning
Author(s) -
Byer Philip H.
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr015i004p00768
Subject(s) - measure (data warehouse) , certainty , computer science , order (exchange) , operations research , risk analysis (engineering) , engineering , mathematics , data mining , economics , business , geometry , finance
A procedure for helping analysts to choose the objectives and uncertainties to be considered in the evaluation of alternative system designs has been developed. Two models are described, one for screening system attributes (and their related objectives) and one for screening uncertainties about the levels of these attributes. The models use first‐order estimates of utilities and probabilities to calculate a measure of the maximum expected effect on the results of the evaluation of not considering an objective or of assuming certainty, rather than uncertainty, about the levels of an attribute. The models are applied to the problem of planning a hypothetical multipurpose dam and reservoir system.