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Preference criterion for flood control under uncertainty
Author(s) -
Krzysztofowicz Roman,
Duckstein Lucien
Publication year - 1979
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr015i003p00513
Subject(s) - flood control , inflow , flood myth , control (management) , recreation , preference , decision maker , function (biology) , dual (grammatical number) , minification , weir , value (mathematics) , computer science , mathematical optimization , operations research , economics , mathematics , microeconomics , geology , geography , artificial intelligence , archaeology , biology , evolutionary biology , machine learning , political science , art , law , oceanography , literature , cartography
Real‐time reservoir control may be reduced to the dual purpose problem of (1) flood control under uncertain inflow and (2) conservation control (water supply, power generation, low flow augmentation, recreation, etc.) after the flood has receded. Under this circumstance, the reservoir flood control is modeled as a game against nature. The decision maker makes the release decisions based upon his value judgments which express preferences over operating attributes and trade‐offs between reservoir purposes and upon his attitude toward risk. His decision behavior is described by a two‐attribute disutility function. It is argued that minimization of expected disutility is a plausible and well motivated criterion for reservoir flood control under uncertainty. Problems of application are discussed, and an experiment in assessing the disutility functions of individuals is reported.