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Application of decision theory to salmon management
Author(s) -
Sheehan S. W.,
Russell S. O.
Publication year - 1978
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr014i005p00976
Subject(s) - escapement , probabilistic logic , bayesian probability , operations research , work (physics) , fishery , resource (disambiguation) , resource management (computing) , computer science , environmental science , environmental resource management , engineering , artificial intelligence , mechanical engineering , computer network , biology
Bayesian decision theory provides concepts that seem ideally suited to many renewable resource management problems. A procedure for applying the concepts to salmon management in real time is illustrated with an example from the Skeena River fishery in Northern British Columbia, Canada. The decision in question is the escapement to allow for spawning purposes in a particular year. The procedure involves determining a probabilistic relationship between the escapement in one year and the number of adults returning in the cycle year 4 years later, defining a utility curve for the catch, forecasting the number of salmon expected to return in the current year, and computing the escapement with the maximum expected utility. Discussion indicates areas where further work is needed and also other possible applications of the procedure.