Premium
Intervention analysis in water resources
Author(s) -
Hipel Keith William,
Lennox W. C.,
Unny T. E.,
McLeod Angus Ian
Publication year - 1975
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr011i006p00855
Subject(s) - intervention (counseling) , statistics , function (biology) , psychological intervention , hydrology (agriculture) , mathematics , environmental science , engineering , geotechnical engineering , medicine , evolutionary biology , psychiatry , biology
Intervention analysis is the stochastic transfer function modeling of natural or man‐induced interventions on the mean level of a time series. The mathematics of intervention analysis is presented followed by a systematic method of analysis that is used to analyze the effect of the Aswan dam on the average annual flows of the Nile River. The analysis shows that a significant drop in the flow occurred in 1903 when the dam was brought into operation. Transfer function parameter estimates statistically describe the intervention effect while the stochastic intervention model developed can be used for forecasting and simulation. The authors maintain that the potential of intervention analysis in water resources is extensive.