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Optimum Reservoir Operating Policies and the Imposition of a Reliability Constraint
Author(s) -
Askew Arthur J.
Publication year - 1974
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr010i001p00051
Subject(s) - constraint (computer aided design) , reliability (semiconductor) , mathematical optimization , liberian dollar , computer science , dynamic programming , resource (disambiguation) , reliability engineering , engineering , mathematics , economics , finance , mechanical engineering , power (physics) , physics , quantum mechanics , computer network
Stochastic dynamic programing can be used to derive optimum operating policies that maximize the expected net dollar benefits for a water resource system. It is shown that these policies may give rise to significant probabilities of system failure. Such probabilities can be estimated by system simulation. A procedure is proposed in which the combined use of dynamic programing and simulation allows an optimum operating policy to be derived that will maximize the expected net benefit and yet not violate constraints on the probability of failure. Limitations to failure are applied directly by imposing a fixed penalty on the system whenever it fails, thus inducing amendments in the optimum policies derived. Further developments of the technique are foreshadowed.