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A stochastic model of runoff‐producing rainfall for summer type storms
Author(s) -
Duckstein Lucien,
Fogel Martin M.,
Kisiel Chester C.
Publication year - 1972
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/wr008i002p00410
Subject(s) - surface runoff , environmental science , storm , precipitation , hydrology (agriculture) , runoff curve number , runoff model , probability distribution , negative binomial distribution , poisson distribution , meteorology , atmospheric sciences , mathematics , statistics , geography , geology , ecology , geotechnical engineering , biology
Modification of watersheds occurs either through natural processes, such as erosion, or human influences, such as urbanization. In either case the rainfall input must be properly modeled before the runoff output can be predicted as the modifications take place. The paper considers runoff‐producing summer precipitation of short duration and high spatial variability as an intermittent stochastic phenomenon. The probability distribution of seasonal total point or areal rainfall is obtained by convoluting a Poisson number of events with a geometric or negative binomial probability of rainfall amount. Close agreement with the experimental data is found. Next the probability of various combinations of rainfall amounts, given the seasonal total and the number of events, is computed. With these results, the theoretical seasonal water yield distribution can be obtained by using a simple rainfall‐runoff relationship, such as the Soil Conservation Service formula. The possibility of using regional input parameters to study the distribution of the output of poorly gaged small watersheds is discussed. In particular, extreme total flows can be computed.