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The lithosphere of the Earth as a nonlinear system with implications for earthquake prediction
Author(s) -
KeilisBorok V. I.
Publication year - 1990
Publication title -
reviews of geophysics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 8.087
H-Index - 156
eISSN - 1944-9208
pISSN - 8755-1209
DOI - 10.1029/rg028i001p00019
Subject(s) - lithosphere , geology , nonlinear system , geophysics , tectonics , hierarchy , boundary (topology) , instability , seismology , mechanics , physics , mathematical analysis , mathematics , quantum mechanics , economics , market economy
The lithosphere of the Earth can be viewed as a hierarchy of volumes, from tectonic plates to grains of rock. Their relative movement against the forces of friction and cohesion is realized to a large extent through earthquakes. The movement is controlled by a wide variety of independent processes, concentrated in the thin boundary zones between the volumes. A boundary zone has a similar hierarchical structure, consisting of volumes, separated by boundary zones, etc. Altogether, these processes transform the lithosphere into a large nonlinear system, featuring instability and deterministic chaos. From this background some integral grossly averaged empirical regularities emerge, indicating a wide range of similarity, collective behavior, and the possibility of intermediate‐term earthquake prediction.