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The Nazca‐South America convergence rate and the recurrence of the Great 1960 Chilean Earthquake
Author(s) -
Stein Seth,
Engeln Joseph F.,
DeMets Charles,
Gordon Richard G.,
Woods Dale,
Lundgren Paul,
Argus Don,
Stein Carol,
Wiens Douglas A.
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/gl013i008p00713
Subject(s) - subduction , geology , seismology , slip (aerodynamics) , plate tectonics , episodic tremor and slip , induced seismicity , trench , interplate earthquake , geodesy , tectonics , chemistry , physics , organic chemistry , layer (electronics) , thermodynamics
The seismic slip rate along the Chile Trench estimated from the slip in the great 1960 earthquake and the recurrence history of major earthquakes has been interpreted as consistent with the subduction rate of the Nazca plate beneath South America. The convergence rate, estimated from global relative plate motion models, depends significantly on closure of the Nazca ‐ Antarctica ‐ South America circuit. NUVEL‐1, a new plate motion model which incorporates recently determined spreading rates on the Chile Rise, shows that the average convergence rate over the last three million years is slower than previously estimated. If this time‐averaged convergence rate provides an appropriate upper bound for the seismic slip rate, either the characteristic Chilean subduction earthquake is smaller than the 1960 event, the average recurrence interval is greater than observed in the last 400 years, or both. These observations bear out the nonuniformity of plate motions on various time scales, the variability in characteristic subduction zone earthquake size, and the limitations of recurrence time estimates.