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Estimation of the probability of earthquake occurrence on the basis of logistic models: High probability of an earthquake of M≥6.5 near the Arc Junction off northeast Japan
Author(s) -
Kuge Keiko,
Honkura Yoshimori
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/gl013i008p00709
Subject(s) - induced seismicity , seismology , geology , arc (geometry) , mathematics , geometry
The probability of the occurrence of an earthquake of M≥6.5 is estimated by applying logistic models to seismicity in the Hokkaido‐Tohoku region, northeast Japan. It is found that the probability of an earthquake occurrence near the arc junction off northeast Japan is high when a specific seismicity pattern appears; that is, seismic activity increases 7∼10 years or decreases 3∼6 years before an event of M≥6.5. Because seismic activity is currently extremely low near the arc junction, it is possible that an earthquake of M≥6.5 may occur there within a few years. Specifically, the probability estimated on the basis of logistic models is higher than 0.9 for the year of 1988.