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A dynamo theory prediction for solar cycle 22: Sunspot number, radio flux, exospheric temperature, and total density at 400 km
Author(s) -
Schatten Kenneth H.,
Hedin A. E.
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/gl011i009p00873
Subject(s) - dynamo , physics , sunspot , solar cycle , solar cycle 22 , flux (metallurgy) , atmospheric sciences , solar maximum , solar dynamo , astrophysics , dynamo theory , magnetic field , solar wind , quantum mechanics , materials science , metallurgy
Using the "dynamo theory" method to predict solar activity, a value for the smoothed sunspot number of 109 ± 20 is obtained for solar cycle 22. The predicted cycle is expected to peak near December, 1990 ± 1 year. Concommitantly, F 10.7 radio flux is expected to reach a smoothed value of 158 ± 18 flux units. Global mean exospheric temperature is expected to reach 1060 ± 50K and global total average total thermospheric density at 400km is expected to reach 4.3 × 10 −15 gm cm −3 ± 25%.