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Using Dynamo Theory to predict the sunspot number during Solar Cycle 21
Author(s) -
Schatten Kenneth H.,
Scherrer Philip H.,
Svalgaard Leif,
Wilcox John M.
Publication year - 1978
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/gl005i005p00411
Subject(s) - dynamo , sunspot , solar dynamo , solar minimum , solar maximum , solar cycle , solar cycle 22 , physics , polar , solar cycle 24 , sunspot number , atmospheric sciences , dynamo theory , solar physics , magnetic field , meteorology , astrophysics , astronomy , solar wind , quantum mechanics
On physical grounds it is suggested that the sun's polar field strength near a solar minimum is closely related to the following cycle's solar activity. Four methods of estimating the sun's polar magnetic field strength near solar minimum are employed to provide an estimate of cycle 21's yearly mean sunspot number at solar maximum of 140 ± 20. We think of this estimate as a first order attempt to predict the cycle's activity using one parameter of physical importance based upon dynamo theory.