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Seasonal runoff forecast for northern South America: A statistical model
Author(s) -
Uvo Cíntia Bertacchi,
Graham Nicholas E.
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/98wr02854
Subject(s) - atlantic hurricane , surface runoff , climatology , environmental science , sea surface temperature , structural basin , amazon rainforest , pacific ocean , pacific basin , flood control , drainage basin , discharge , oceanography , flood myth , geology , geography , tropical cyclone , ecology , paleontology , cartography , archaeology , biology
The variability of water availability in the Amazon Basin is highly related to the sea surface temperature (par;SST) pattern over the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. The possibility of forecasting this variability one season in advance is a necessity for the correct management of water in the region for water supply, energy production, and flood control. Here we present the development of a statistical model to forecast seasonal discharge, one season in advance, at 12 sites in northeastern South America from Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs. Results show that the model has a better capacity to forecast discharge at some sites than at others and that different oceanic regions have different influences over the basins. Discharge at subbasins in the northern part of the Amazon Basin are better forecasted from Pacific Ocean SSTs while discharges at subbasins in the southern part are better forecasted from Atlantic Ocean SSTs.