Premium
Solar Cycle 23 forecast update
Author(s) -
Schatten Kenneth,
Hoyt Douglas
Publication year - 1998
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/98gl00303
Subject(s) - space weather , interplanetary spaceflight , meteorology , environmental science , solar cycle , sunspot , solar cycle 23 , solar cycle 24 , interplanetary space , earth's magnetic field , climatology , solar wind , physics , geology , magnetic field , quantum mechanics
Solar activity, although virtually impossible to forecast a month in advance, has succumbed to scientific methods on long time scales, much as climate or seasonal weather predictions are simpler than weekly weather forecasting. Moderately accurate solar activity forecasts on decadal time scales now seem possible. The methods that work fall into a class of prediction techniques called “precursor methods.” We utilize solar, interplanetary field, and geomagnetic precursors to update our cycle 23 prediction to provide a mean smoothed sunspot number of 153 ± 30 and mean smoothed Fl0.7 cm Radio flux of 200 ± 30. This is comparable to, but somewhat smaller than, the NOAA SEC panel findings that the next solar cycle would peak at a sunspot number near 160 ± 30. This paper also provides some discussion relating solar and interplanetary field components to serve as a bridge in interplanetary space, helping to forge Sun‐Earth connections.