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Rate parameter uncertainty effects in assessing stratospheric ozone depletion by supersonic aviation
Author(s) -
Dubey Manvendra K.,
Smith Gregory P.,
Hartley W. Seth,
Kinnison Douglas E.,
Connell Peter S.
Publication year - 1997
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/97gl02859
Subject(s) - nox , supersonic speed , ozone , ozone depletion , atmospheric sciences , environmental science , sink (geography) , ozone layer , stratosphere , aviation , sensitivity (control systems) , meteorology , box model , physics , chemistry , thermodynamics , aerospace engineering , combustion , cartography , electronic engineering , engineering , geography
Box model sensitivity‐uncertainty calculations for O 3 depletion from supersonic aircraft emissions were performed at the most perturbed locale using localized outputs of the LLNL 2‐D diurnally averaged assessment model. Processes controlling N 2 O 5 , catalytic O 3 loss steps O+NO 2 and HO 2 +O 3 , HOx sink reactions OH+ HNO 3 /HNO 4 , and the O+O 2 recombination that forms O 3 are identified as the dominant photochemical uncertainty sources. Guided by local sensitivities, 2‐D model runs were repeated with 9 targeted input parameters altered to 1/3 of their l‐σ uncertainties to put error‐bounds on the predicted O 3 change. Results indicate these kinetic errors can cause the predicted local O 3 loss of 1.5% to be uncertain by up to 3% in regions of large aircraft NOx injection.