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Difficulty of statistical evaluation of an earthquake prediction method
Author(s) -
Utada Hisashi
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/96gl01445
Subject(s) - earthquake prediction , variety (cybernetics) , dice , computer science , geology , seismology , mathematics , statistics , artificial intelligence
Earthquake prediction is not a game such as rolling dice, but deals with real physical phenomena; therefore the definition of a prediction method usually contains ambiguous factors. This is a general remark, and is not restricted to the VAN method with which the present debate is concerned. It is not surprising that various attempts to evaluate the validity of the method reach a wide variety of conclusions.