Premium
Greenhouse warming and changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature: Model versus observations
Author(s) -
Mann Michael E.,
Park Jeffrey
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/96gl01066
Subject(s) - climatology , northern hemisphere , atmospheric sciences , environmental science , amplitude , latitude , coupled model intercomparison project , general circulation model , annual cycle , climate model , southern hemisphere , climate change , geology , physics , oceanography , geodesy , quantum mechanics
Thomson [1995] argues that an enhanced green‐house effect may be altering the seasonal cycle in temperature. We compare trends in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle in observational temperature data in the northern hemisphere with the response of two general circulation models to increased CO 2 concentrations. Sizeable amplitude decreases are observed in both models and observations. Significant phase delays (ie, later seasonal transitions) are found in the simulations, opposite to the phase advances isolated in the observations. The retreat of winter sea ice in high‐latitude regions appears to explain the models' response to CO 2 increase. Much of the variability in the observational data is not predicted by the models.