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Reply to “Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN Method,” by D. D. Jackson
Author(s) -
Varotsos P.,
Lazaridou M.,
Hadjicontis V.
Publication year - 1996
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/96gl00916
Subject(s) - de facto , earthquake prediction , value (mathematics) , statistics , computer science , mathematics , geology , law , seismology , political science
Our earlier publications show that VAN method does not fail requirements (1) and (2) suggested by Jackson [1996]. No subjective ex‐post facto decission was necessary for the evaluation of the success because, for the large majority of VAN predictions, the values of ΔM, Δr and Δt were published before the period 1987–1989 under discussion; in a few cases only (three out of 29), related with the observation of the new phenomenon of the SES electrical activity, the value of Δt was determined in 1988. Furthermore, a careful inspection‐from physical point of view‐shows that the three plausibility criteria, suggested by Jackson (to be obeyed by a candidate prediction technique), are actually met by VAN‐method.