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The Great Salt Lake: A Barometer of Low‐Frequency Climatic Variability
Author(s) -
Lall Upmanu,
Mann Michael
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/95wr01950
Subject(s) - climatology , environmental science , precipitation , singular spectrum analysis , streamflow , climatic variability , climate change , spectral analysis , drainage basin , geology , oceanography , geography , meteorology , physics , cartography , quantum mechanics , singular value decomposition , spectroscopy , artificial intelligence , computer science
Low‐frequency (interannual or longer period) climatic variability is of interest because of its significance for the understanding and prediction of protracted climatic anomalies. Closed basin lakes are sensitive to long‐term climatic fluctuations and integrate out high‐frequency variability. It is thus natural to examine the records of such lakes to better understand long‐term climate dynamics. Here we use singular spectral analysis and multitaper spectral analysis to analyze the time series of Great Salt Lake (GSL) monthly volume change from 1848 to 1992 and monthly precipitation, temperature, and streamflow for nearby stations with 74 or more years of data. This analysis reveals high fractional variance in 15–18, 10–12, 3–7 and 2‐year frequency bands, which seems to be consistent across time series. The putative decadal and interdecadal signals appear to be related to large‐scale climate signals. The interannual signals are consistent with El Nino Southern Oscillation and quasi‐biennial variability. Prospects for improved prediction of the GSL volume and of protracted wet/dry periods in the western United States are discussed.