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Geomagnetic activity forecasting: The state of the art
Author(s) -
Joselyn Jo Ann
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
reviews of geophysics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 8.087
H-Index - 156
eISSN - 1944-9208
pISSN - 8755-1209
DOI - 10.1029/95rg01304
Subject(s) - earth's magnetic field , interplanetary spaceflight , geomagnetic storm , solar wind , nowcasting , meteorology , interplanetary magnetic field , ionospheric dynamo region , space weather , notice , environmental science , geology , geophysics , physics , political science , magnetic field , quantum mechanics , law
Short‐term (days to weeks) geomagnetic forecasts are valuable for a variety of public and private sector endeavors. However, forecast skill, as measured by the success of predicting geomagnetic indices, is disappointing, especially for disturbed conditions. Possible reasons for this lack of proficiency include an incomplete understanding of the solar origins of interplanetary disturbances, insufficient observations of solar phenomena and interplanetary disturbances, and an underestimation of magnetospheric‐ionospheric control of observed geomagnetic activity. Until more progress can be made on each of these problems, desirable forecasting precision is likely to remain elusive. The best opportunity for improved service to those agencies requiring advance notice of geomagnetic disturbances is “nowcasting” using real‐time, near‐Earth observations of the approaching solar wind.