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Determining the range of predictions of a groundwater model which arises from alternative calibrations
Author(s) -
Brooks Roger J.,
Lerner David N.,
Tobias Andrew M.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/94wr00947
Subject(s) - range (aeronautics) , set (abstract data type) , groundwater , process (computing) , calibration , groundwater model , mathematics , mathematical optimization , computer science , econometrics , statistics , groundwater flow , geology , engineering , geotechnical engineering , aquifer , aerospace engineering , programming language , operating system
A major element in constructing a groundwater model is choosing the parameter values. The traditional approach is to aim for a single best set of values. The parameters used in a model are effective rather than measurable, and this combined with the inherent uncertainties in the modeling process means that there are often many plausible sets of values. A single prediction obtained from a single set of parameter values is not appropriate, but rather the range in predictions from the alternative calibrations should be used. A method is presented for finding the best case and worst case predictions among the plausible parameter sets and is applied to a real case study. Widely different feasible parameter sets were found giving significantly different predictions.