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Flood frequency analysis with systematic and historical or paleoflood data based on the two‐parameter general extreme value models
Author(s) -
Frances Felix,
Salas Jose D.,
Boes Duane C.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/94wr00154
Subject(s) - quantile , censoring (clinical trials) , flood myth , return period , statistics , econometrics , extreme value theory , maximum likelihood , mathematics , geography , archaeology
Historical and paleoflood data have become an important source of information for flood frequency analysis. A number of studies have been proposed in the literature regarding the value of historical and paleoflood information for estimating flood quantiles. These studies have been generally based on computer simulation experiments. In this paper the value of using systematic and historical/paleoflood data relative to using systematic records alone is examined analytically by comparing the asymptotic variances of flood quantiles assuming a two‐parameter general extreme value marginal distribution, type 1 and type 2 censored data, and maximum likelihood estimation method. The results of this study indicate that the value of historical and paleoflood data for estimating flood quantiles can be small or large depending on only three factors: the relative magnitudes of the length of the systematic record ( N ) and the length of the historical period ( M ); the return period ( T ) of the flood quantile of interest; and the return period ( H ) of the threshold level of perception. For instance, for N = 50, M = 50 and T = 500, the statistical gain for type 2 censoring becomes significantly larger than for type 1 censoring as H becomes greater than 100 years. In addition, computer experiments have shown that the results regarding the statistical gain based on asymptotic considerations are valid for the usual sample sizes.