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Extended‐range hindcasts of tropical‐origin Atlantic hurricane activity
Author(s) -
Hess J. C.,
Elsner J. B.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/94gl00008
Subject(s) - atlantic hurricane , tropical cyclone , hindcast , climatology , storm , tropical atlantic , environmental science , african easterly jet , tropical wave , meteorology , geography , geology , sea surface temperature
Annual tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin is divided into two groups: 1) all storms and 2) storms having formed exclusively from tropical disturbances. It is demonstrated that, using ordinary least‐squares regression, cross‐validated hindcasts of tropical storm activity from the latter group are more skillful than hindcasts of total hurricane activity. Differences in hindcast skill are above what is expected from a random reduction of the total numbers. Improvements are greatest for yearly numbers of hurricanes and hurricane days.