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Uncertainties in future CO 2 projections
Author(s) -
Craig S. G.,
Holmén K. J.
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
global biogeochemical cycles
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.512
H-Index - 187
eISSN - 1944-9224
pISSN - 0886-6236
DOI - 10.1029/94gb02819
Subject(s) - biosphere , environmental science , carbon cycle , carbon fibers , biosphere model , atmosphere (unit) , temperate climate , temperate forest , fossil fuel , global change , greenhouse gas , temperate rainforest , atmospheric sciences , earth science , climate change , geology , ecology , meteorology , ecosystem , geography , oceanography , materials science , composite number , composite material , biology
The perceived budget imbalance in the global carbon cycle has been suggested to result from, among other processes, CO 2 fertilization of the terrestrial biosphere and/or enhanced regrowth of previously felled temperate forest. These two processes are incorporated into a box diffusion model of the ocean‐atmosphere system coupled to a five‐box terrestrial biosphere. The extent to which historical fossil fuel and land use change emission data can be reconciled with the observed atmospheric CO 2 concentration record is examined. Furthermore, the sensitivity of future CO 2 projections to the nature of the budget imbalance is investigated. It is found that the CO 2 record can accommodate a carbon budget balanced by CO 2 fertilization but that the balance with forest regrowth is more difficult. Future CO 2 projections are found to be sensitive to how the carbon budget is balanced, even relative to uncertainties in future emissions.