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A theory of flood warning systems
Author(s) -
Krzysztofowicz Roman
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/93wr00961
Subject(s) - flood warning , flood myth , warning system , flash flood , computer science , imperfect , situated , bayesian probability , environmental science , flood forecasting , operations research , water resource management , geography , engineering , artificial intelligence , telecommunications , archaeology , linguistics , philosophy
A local flood warning system typically serves a small community situated in a headwater area and exposed to flash floods or rapid riverine floods. Forecasts of such flood events are characterized by short lead times and large uncertainties. A Bayesian theory is formulated for a local flood warning system built of three functional components: monitor, forecaster, and decider. The theory offers a modeling framework and mathematical concepts necessary for (1) developing optimal decision rules for issuing warnings based on imperfect forecasts, (2) evaluating system performance statistically, and (3) computing the ex ante economic benefits from a system.