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Modelling the influence of global sea surface temperatures on the variability and predictability of seasonal Sahel rainfall
Author(s) -
Rowell David P.,
Folland Chris K.,
Maskell Kathy,
Owen John A.,
Ward M. Neil
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/92gl00939
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , forcing (mathematics) , sea surface temperature , environmental science , atmospheric circulation , general circulation model , atmospheric sciences , madden–julian oscillation , oceanography , climate change , geology , meteorology , geography , physics , convection , quantum mechanics
An atmospheric general circulation model has been forced by observed global sea surface temperature data from ten individual years. The results support the idea that oceanic effects tend to dominate the forcing of both interannual and interdecadal variability of Sahel rainfall, with different local atmospheric mechanisms dominating in different years. Further experiments indicate that skillful predictions of July–September Sahel rainfall are possible using the persistence of June SST anomalies.