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Time and magnitude predictions in shocks due to chaotic fault interactions
Author(s) -
McCloskey John,
Bean C. J.
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1029/92gl00099
Subject(s) - magnitude (astronomy) , moment (physics) , iterated function , chaotic , physics , fault (geology) , event (particle physics) , second moment of area , geology , statistical physics , seismology , mathematical analysis , mathematics , classical mechanics , computer science , thermodynamics , astrophysics , artificial intelligence
The equations of motion for a two block, driven, spring loaded fault model with assymetric frictional forces are iterated in the chaotic regime [4,5]. The seismic moment, M 0 , of each failure episode whose moment exceeds a threshold, M 0t , is recorded together with the time, T, since the last significant event (M 0 >M 0t ). Preliminary results from prediction‐regression analysis indicate that the distribution of points in M 0 ‐T space takes the form of a map, Mo(t), T(t) determining the values of M 0 (t+l), T(t+l). It is suggested that such analysis on real data would be helpful in assessing the applicability of such low‐dimensional systems to earthquake modelling and may prove useful in the prediction of real events.