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Potential Impacts of Future Extreme Precipitation Changes on Flood Engineering Design Across the Contiguous United States
Author(s) -
Coelho Gustavo de A.,
Ferreira Celso M.,
Johnston Jeremy,
Kinter James L.,
Dollan Ishrat J.,
Maggioni Viviana
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/2021wr031432
Subject(s) - flood myth , climate change , climatology , environmental science , precipitation , return period , climate model , coupled model intercomparison project , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography , archaeology
The intensification of extreme precipitation in a warming climate is expected to increase flood risk. In order to support flood resilience efforts, it is important to anticipate and quantify potential changes in design standards under future climate conditions. This study assessed how extreme precipitation is expected to change over the 21st century in relation to current National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14 design standards over the contiguous United States (CONUS). We used the Community Earth System Model Version 2 large ensemble (CESM2‐LE) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and incorporated future changes into flood engineering design standard with a spatially distributed quantile delta mapping method. Relative changes in extreme daily precipitation were computed for multiple average recurrence intervals (ARIs) up to 100‐year and different planning horizons (2020, 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100). The results indicated an intensification of extreme precipitation by approximately 10%–40% in northern regions and 20%–80% in southern regions by 2100. The current 100‐year ARI with 24‐hr duration from NOAA Atlas 14 is projected to become the 50‐year ARI in the Northern Great Plains, less than the 25‐year ARI in Southwest areas, and approximately the 25‐year ARI in the other regions by 2100. While a nationwide consensus is still needed, this work presents a possible methodology for incorporating climate uncertainty in engineering design. A comparison across major metropolitan areas also illustrates regional variability in projected changes relative to NOAA Atlas 14, suggesting a need for varied local‐scale responses.