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Hydrological Shifts Threaten Water Resources
Author(s) -
Fowler Keirnan,
Peel Murray,
Saft Margarita,
Nathan Rory,
Horne Avril,
Wilby Robert,
McCutcheon Connor,
Peterson Tim
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1029/2021wr031210
Subject(s) - streamflow , climate change , environmental science , water resources , precipitation , hydrological modelling , hydrology (agriculture) , environmental resource management , water resource management , climatology , geography , drainage basin , ecology , meteorology , geology , cartography , geotechnical engineering , biology
Recent shifts in the hydrological behavior of natural watersheds suggest acute challenges for water planning under climate change. Usually triggered by a multi‐year drought, these shifts involve a tendency for less annual streamflow for a given annual precipitation, and this behavior has now been reported on multiple continents. Future drying under climate change may induce similar unexpected hydrological responses, and this commentary discusses the implications for water planning and management. Commonly used hydrological models poorly represent these shifts in behavior and cannot be relied upon to anticipate future changes. Thus, their use may result in underestimation of hydroclimatic risk and exposure to “surprise” reductions in water supply, relative to projections. The onus is now on hydrologists to determine the underlying causes of shifting behavior and incorporate more dynamic realism into operational models.